Mito Hollyhock at Yokohama F. Marinos — Game center Final J League
Sep 19 (Sat) · 10:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Mito Hollyhock 29%
Draw 32%
Yokohama F. Marinos 39%
Locked before start
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 84% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 82% Hit Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 80% Miss Showing 3 of 29 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.39 vs 0.93 (home Points per game 1.36 / runs allowed 1.13) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.39 - 0.93
+8.3%p vs league average
2.32 vs 2.96 goals
-3.9%p
Head to head Mito Hollyhock Yokohama F. Marinos
Model expected goals
0.93 1.39
Data source: ESPN API
Kaina Tanimura Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Arata Wantanabe Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shin Miidera Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 1.39 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 2/1 Hit
84% Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Mito Hollyhock clean sheet· Clean Sheet Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 2.32 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 2/2 Hit
82% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Yokohama F. Marinos Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.39 vs 0.93 (home Points per game 1.36 / runs allowed 1.13) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 2/1 Hit
39% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
32% Mito Hollyhock Away Win· Away Win Medium
expected runs 0.93 vs 1.39 (away Points per game 1.31 / runs allowed 1.38)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 0/3 Miss
29% Goalscorers18 Kaina Tanimura Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kaina Tanimura 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Arata Wantanabe Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Arata Wantanabe 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Shin Miidera Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shin Miidera 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yasuki Kimoto Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yasuki Kimoto 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kaina Tanimura 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Arata Wantanabe 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Jeisson Quiñones Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jeisson Quiñones 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Taisei Inoue Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Taisei Inoue 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Takumi Mase Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Takumi Mase 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yoshiki Torikai Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yoshiki Torikai 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Yokohama F. Marinos KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 10:30 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Mito Hollyhock MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 47.0%
Draw 29.0%
Away win 24.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Yokohama F. Marinos 33.8–60.2%, Draw 17–41%, Mito Hollyhock 12.7–35.3%
Yokohama F. Marinos leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.46 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 29% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 11 8 4 1 1 13 14 6 2 2 9 9 4 1 3 4 4 2 4 1 1 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 41%
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams score 47%
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet 40%
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet 25% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
