expected runs 2.17 vs 0.82 (home Points per game 1.67 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: FC Tokyo 60.5–75.5%, Draw 13.6–26.4%, Nagoya Grampus 6.8–17.2%
FC Tokyo leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.35 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 20%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
3
2
1
11
10
4
2
12
10
4
1
3
8
7
3
4
4
4
2
5
2
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals
43%
Both teams score
50%
FC Tokyo clean sheet
44%
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet
11%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
