Sanfrecce Hiroshima at Avispa Fukuoka — Game center Final J League
Sep 19 (Sat) · 9:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70%
Draw 20%
Avispa Fukuoka 10%
Locked before start
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 99%+ Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 95% Miss Sanfrecce Hiroshima Away Win· Away Win 70% Hit Showing 3 of 33 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.24 vs 0.74 (away Points per game 2.38 / runs allowed 0.75)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
0.74 - 2.24
+27.0%p
Head to head Sanfrecce Hiroshima Avispa Fukuoka
Model expected goals
2.24 0.74
Data source: ESPN API
Akito Suzuki Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sébastien Haller Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shun Ayukawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 2.24 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +10pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 1/1 Hit
99%+ Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet· Clean Sheet Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 2.99 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
goals 1/2 Miss
95% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Away Win· Away Win Medium
expected runs 2.24 vs 0.74 (away Points per game 2.38 / runs allowed 0.75)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 1/1 Hit
70% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 1/0 Miss
20% Avispa Fukuoka Home Win· Home Win Medium
expected runs 0.74 vs 2.24 (home Points per game 1.34 / runs allowed 1.50) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 0/2 Miss
10% Goalscorers20 Akito Suzuki Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Akito Suzuki 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Sébastien Haller Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shun Ayukawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sébastien Haller 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Shun Ayukawa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Shuto Nakano Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shuto Nakano 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Shu Morooka Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shu Morooka 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Akito Suzuki 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Sébastien Haller 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Shun Ayukawa 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Shuto Nakano 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yuma Tsujioka Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Werik Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kazuki Fujimoto Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yuma Tsujioka 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Werik 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kazuki Fujimoto 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Avispa Fukuoka KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 9:00 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Sanfrecce Hiroshima MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 10.0%
Draw 19.0%
Away win 71.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Avispa Fukuoka 5.2–14.8%, Draw 12.7–25.3%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63.7–78.3%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.50 more expected goals). The draw sits at 19%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 6 11 13 9 5 2 1 3 9 9 7 4 2 2 1 3 3 3 2 3 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Under 2.5 goals 43%
Both teams score 48%
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet 11%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet 48% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
