Suita City Football StadiumSep 20 (Sun) · 8:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Vissel Kobe59%
Draw28%
Gamba Osaka13%
Locked before start
Vissel Kobe1+ goals· 1+ Goals91%Hit
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.580%Miss
Vissel KobeAway Win· Away Win59%Hit
Showing 3 of 32 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.45 vs 0.64 (away Points per game 1.32 / runs allowed 0.63)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Vissel Kobe leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.82 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 29% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
13
17
13
6
2
1
7
12
8
4
1
2
2
4
3
1
3
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Under 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
37%
Gamba Osaka clean sheet
23%
Vissel Kobe clean sheet
53%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
