Vissel Kobe at Kashiwa Reysol — Game center Scheduled J League
VS
Oct 9 (Fri) · 10:00 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Vissel Kobe 44%
Draw 30%
Kashiwa Reysol 26%
Behind the probability expected runs 1.20 vs 0.81 (away Points per game 1.28 / runs allowed 0.63)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
0.81 - 1.20
+7.1%p vs league average
2.02 vs 2.96 goals
+5.7%p
Head to head Vissel Kobe Kashiwa Reysol
Model expected goals
1.20 0.81
Data source: ESPN API
Yusuke Segawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yuya Osako Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Katsuya Nagato Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Vissel Kobe 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 1.20 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
82% Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet· Clean Sheet Vissel Kobe 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Vissel Kobe clean sheet· Clean Sheet Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals· 2+ Goals total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 2.02 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration +8pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
68% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Vissel Kobe Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.20 vs 0.81 (away Points per game 1.28 / runs allowed 0.63)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
44% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
30% Kashiwa Reysol Home Win· Home Win Medium
expected runs 0.81 vs 1.20 (home Points per game 1.75 / runs allowed 1.50) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied· 1X2 normalized to 100%
26% Goalscorers18 Yusuke Segawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yuya Osako Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yusuke Segawa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yuya Osako 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Katsuya Nagato Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yuta Goke Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Katsuya Nagato 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yuta Goke 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yoshio Koizumi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yoshio Koizumi 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yusuke Segawa 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yuya Osako 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Tojiro Kubo Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Keita Endo Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ren Komatsu Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ren Komatsu 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Tojiro Kubo 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Keita Endo 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Kashiwa Reysol KICKOFF Oct 9 (Fri) · 10:00 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Vissel Kobe MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 24.0%
Draw 32.0%
Away win 44.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Kashiwa Reysol 12.7–35.3%, Draw 19.7–44.3%, Vissel Kobe 30.9–57.1%
Vissel Kobe leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.39 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 32% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 15 15 10 4 1 1 10 14 8 3 2 4 5 3 1 3 1 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 33%
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Both teams score 40%
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet 30%
Vissel Kobe clean sheet 44% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
