Yokohama F. Marinos at Cerezo Osaka — Game center Scheduled J League
VS
Oct 10 (Sat) · 5:00 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Yokohama F. Marinos 42%
Draw 28%
Cerezo Osaka 30%
Locked before start
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 84% Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 79% Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 74% Showing 3 of 31 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.29 vs 1.00 (away Points per game 1.38 / runs allowed 1.13)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.00 - 1.29
+5.2%p vs league average
2.29 vs 2.99 goals
+4.2%p
Head to head Yokohama F. Marinos Cerezo Osaka
Model expected goals
1.29 1.00
Data source: ESPN API
Kaina Tanimura Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Soromon Sakuragawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shin Miidera Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 1.29 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
84% Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Cerezo Osaka clean sheet· Clean Sheet Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet· Clean Sheet Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals· 2+ Goals total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 2.29 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration +12pp (past 180 beta adjusted)
79% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Yokohama F. Marinos Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.29 vs 1.00 (away Points per game 1.38 / runs allowed 1.13)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
42% Cerezo Osaka Home Win· Home Win Medium
expected runs 1.00 vs 1.29 (home Points per game 1.20 / runs allowed 1.50) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied· 1X2 normalized to 100%
30% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
28% Goalscorers18 Kaina Tanimura Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kaina Tanimura 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soromon Sakuragawa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Soromon Sakuragawa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Shin Miidera Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Shin Miidera 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kaina Tanimura 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soromon Sakuragawa 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Thiago Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Thiago 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Yumeki Yokoyama Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Yumeki Yokoyama 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Lucas Fernandes Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Lucas Fernandes 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Jeisson Quiñones Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jeisson Quiñones 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Taisei Inoue Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Taisei Inoue 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Cerezo Osaka KICKOFF Oct 10 (Sat) · 5:00 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Yokohama F. Marinos MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 28.0%
Draw 30.0%
Away win 42.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Cerezo Osaka 16.1–39.9%, Draw 17.9–42.1%, Yokohama F. Marinos 29–55%
Yokohama F. Marinos leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.29 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 30% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 11 12 8 3 1 1 9 14 8 4 1 2 5 6 4 2 3 2 2 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 40%
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams score 47%
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet 28%
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet 37% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
