expected runs 0.89 vs 1.04 (away Points per game 1.49 / runs allowed 0.86)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Athletic Club 24.2–49.8%, Draw 21.5–46.5%, Alavés 17–41%
Athletic Club leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.15 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 34% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
16
12
6
2
1
14
14
6
2
2
8
7
3
3
3
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Under 2.5 goals
69%
Both teams score
39%
Athletic Club clean sheet
41%
Alavés clean sheet
35%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
