Athletic Club at Rayo Vallecano — Game center Scheduled LaLiga
VS
Oct 10 (Sat) · 12:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Athletic Club 53%
Draw 24%
Rayo Vallecano 23%
Behind the probability expected runs 1.92 vs 1.02 (away Points per game 1.40 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.02 - 1.92
+16.2%p vs league average
2.95 vs 3.03 goals
+0.5%p
Head to head Athletic Club Rayo Vallecano
Model expected goals
1.92 1.02
Data source: ESPN API
Sergio Camello Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Robert Navarro Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Oihan Sancet Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Athletic Club 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.92 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -8pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
77% Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Athletic Club 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Rayo Vallecano clean sheet· Clean Sheet Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Athletic Club clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 2.95 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration -12pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
67% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Athletic Club Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.92 vs 1.02 (away Points per game 1.40 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
53% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
24% Rayo Vallecano Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.02 vs 1.92 (home Points per game 1.37 / runs allowed 2.29) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied· 1X2 normalized to 100%
23% Goalscorers21 Sergio Camello Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sergio Camello 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Robert Navarro Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Robert Navarro 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Sergio Camello 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Oihan Sancet Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Álex Berenguer Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Iñaki Williams Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Robert Navarro 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Oihan Sancet 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Álex Berenguer 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Iñaki Williams 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Oihan Sancet 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Álex Berenguer 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Iñaki Williams 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Álvaro García Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Álvaro García 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Andrei Ratiu Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Andrei Ratiu 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Adrià Pedrosa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Adrià Pedrosa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Rayo Vallecano KICKOFF Oct 10 (Sat) · 12:00 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Athletic Club Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Rayo Vallecano 8.6–29.4%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Athletic Club 45–71%
Athletic Club leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.90 more expected goals). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 6 10 10 6 3 1 1 5 11 10 6 3 1 2 3 5 5 3 2 3 2 2 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Under 2.5 goals 44%
Both teams score 56%
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet 15%
Athletic Club clean sheet 36% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
