expected runs 0.97 vs 0.94 (home Points per game 1.30 / runs allowed 0.86) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Alavés 21.5–46.5%, Draw 21.5–46.5%, Atlético Madrid 19.7–44.3%
Attacking output is close (0.97 vs 0.94 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 34% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
16
13
6
2
1
13
14
6
2
2
7
7
3
1
3
2
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Under 2.5 goals
70%
Both teams score
39%
Alavés clean sheet
39%
Atlético Madrid clean sheet
38%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
