Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán StadiumSep 19 (Sat) · 7:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Barcelona59%
Draw25%
Sevilla16%
Locked before start
Barcelona1+ goals· 1+ Goals77%Hit
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.567%Hit
Barcelona2+ goals· 2+ Goals44%Hit
Showing 3 of 32 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 2.37 vs 0.99 (away Points per game 3.09 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Sevilla 4.1–21.9%, Draw 8.6–29.4%, Barcelona 55.7–80.3%
Barcelona leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.39 more expected goals). The draw sits at 19%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
8
10
8
4
2
1
3
9
10
8
5
2
2
2
4
5
4
2
1
3
1
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Under 2.5 goals
35%
Both teams score
58%
Sevilla clean sheet
9%
Barcelona clean sheet
37%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
