MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 0.95 vs 0.75 (home Points per game 1.13 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Getafe leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.20 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 36% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
19
13
5
1
1
16
14
5
1
2
8
6
2
3
3
2
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
24%
Under 2.5 goals
76%
Both teams score
34%
Getafe clean sheet
47%
Deportivo clean sheet
38%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
