Elche at Espanyol — Game center Final LaLiga
Sep 18 (Fri) · 7:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Elche 6%
Draw 14%
Espanyol 81%
Locked before start
Espanyol 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 95% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 88% Hit Espanyol 2+ goals· 2+ Goals 68% Miss Showing 3 of 32 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.87 vs 1.23 (home Points per game 1.59 / runs allowed 1.43) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
2.87 - 1.23
+29.5%p vs league average
4.10 vs 3.04 goals
+6.3%p
Head to head Elche Espanyol
Model expected goals
1.23 2.87
Data source: ESPN API
Roberto Fernández Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Cala Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Tyrhys Dolan Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Espanyol 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 2.87 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -1pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 1/1 Hit
95% Espanyol 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Elche 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Elche clean sheet· Clean Sheet Elche 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Espanyol clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 4.10 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration -3pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 4/2 Hit
88% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Espanyol Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 2.87 vs 1.23 (home Points per game 1.59 / runs allowed 1.43) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 1/4 Miss
81% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
14% Elche Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.23 vs 2.87 (away Points per game 1.44 / runs allowed 2.43)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 3/2 Hit
6% Goalscorers21 Roberto Fernández Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Roberto Fernández 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Roberto Fernández 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Cala Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Tyrhys Dolan Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Marcos Fernández Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Cala 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Tyrhys Dolan 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Marcos Fernández 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Fer Niño Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Fer Niño 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Cala 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Tyrhys Dolan 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Marcos Fernández 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Fer Niño 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Germán Valera Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Buba Sangaré Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Marc Aguado Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Germán Valera 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Buba Sangaré 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Marc Aguado 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Espanyol KICKOFF Sep 18 (Fri) · 7:00 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Elche MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 71.0%
Draw 16.0%
Away win 13.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Espanyol 59–83%, Draw 6.3–25.7%, Elche 4.1–21.9%
Espanyol leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.64 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 16%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 2 2 1 1 5 6 3 1 2 7 8 5 2 3 7 8 5 2 4 5 6 4 2 5 3 3 2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 77%
Under 2.5 goals 23%
Both teams score 67%
Espanyol clean sheet 29%
Elche clean sheet 6% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
