expected runs 1.70 vs 1.10 (away Points per game 1.66 / runs allowed 1.43)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Espanyol leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.60 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
10
9
5
2
1
6
12
10
5
2
2
4
6
5
3
1
3
1
2
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
47%
Both teams score
55%
Málaga clean sheet
18%
Espanyol clean sheet
33%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
