Estadio Municipal de ButarqueSep 15 (Tue) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Espanyol48%
Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano28%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 2.07 vs 1.64 (away Points per game 1.51 / runs allowed 1.43)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Espanyol leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.43 more expected goals). The draw sits at 23%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
5
5
3
2
1
4
9
9
6
3
1
2
3
7
7
5
3
1
3
2
4
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
29%
Both teams score
71%
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet
13%
Espanyol clean sheet
19%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
