expected runs 2.06 vs 0.57 (home Points per game 2.76 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Barcelona 60.1–83.9%, Draw 9.4–30.6%, Getafe 0.8–15.2%
Barcelona leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.49 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 20%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
3
1
1
14
9
2
2
15
9
3
3
10
6
2
4
5
3
5
2
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams score
39%
Barcelona clean sheet
56%
Getafe clean sheet
13%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
