Estadio Benito VillamarínSep 17 (Thu) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Getafe12%
Draw28%
Real Betis60%
Locked before start
Real Betis1+ goals· 1+ Goals68%Hit
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.556%Miss
Getafeclean sheet· Clean Sheet39%Miss
Showing 3 of 28 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.29 vs 0.64 (home Points per game 1.73 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Real Betis 37.8–64.2%, Draw 18.8–43.2%, Getafe 7.8–28.2%
Real Betis leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.64 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 31% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
16
8
3
1
18
13
4
2
12
8
3
3
5
3
1
4
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Under 2.5 goals
70%
Both teams score
35%
Real Betis clean sheet
53%
Getafe clean sheet
28%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
