Levante at Villarreal — Game center Final LaLiga
Sep 20 (Sun) · 4:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Levante 20%
Draw 22%
Villarreal 58%
Locked before start
Villarreal 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 86% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 84% Hit Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 60% Hit Showing 3 of 31 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.69 vs 1.27 (home Points per game 1.81 / runs allowed 1.71) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
2.69 - 1.27
+25.6%p vs league average
3.96 vs 3.04 goals
+5.5%p
Head to head Levante Villarreal
Model expected goals
1.27 2.69
Data source: ESPN API
Pape Gueye Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Roger Brugué Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Alberto Moleiro Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Villarreal 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 2.69 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -1pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 3/1 Hit
86% Levante 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Villarreal 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Levante 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Levante clean sheet· Clean Sheet Villarreal clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 3.96 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration -4pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 4/2 Hit
84% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Villarreal Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 2.69 vs 1.27 (home Points per game 1.81 / runs allowed 1.71) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 3/2 Hit
58% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
22% Levante Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.27 vs 2.69 (away Points per game 1.24 / runs allowed 2.00)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 1/4 Miss
20% Goalscorers22 Pape Gueye Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Pape Gueye 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Roger Brugué Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Alberto Moleiro Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Nicolas Pépé Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Roger Brugué 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Alberto Moleiro 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Nicolas Pépé 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Pape Gueye 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Georges Mikautadze Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Alberto Moleiro 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Nicolas Pépé 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Roger Brugué 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Georges Mikautadze 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Georges Mikautadze 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Iván Romero 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Iván Romero Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Adrián de la Fuente Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jon Ander Olasagasti Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Iván Romero 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Adrián de la Fuente 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Jon Ander Olasagasti 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Villarreal KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 4:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Levante MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 67.0%
Draw 18.0%
Away win 15.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Villarreal 54.6–79.4%, Draw 7.8–28.2%, Levante 5.6–24.4%
Villarreal leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.42 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 18%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 3 2 1 1 5 7 4 2 2 7 9 5 2 3 6 8 5 2 4 4 5 3 1 5 2 3 2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 75%
Under 2.5 goals 25%
Both teams score 68%
Villarreal clean sheet 28%
Levante clean sheet 7% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
