expected runs 1.39 vs 0.55 (home Points per game 1.09 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Getafe leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.84 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 29% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
15
7
2
1
19
12
3
2
14
8
2
3
6
4
1
4
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Under 2.5 goals
69%
Both teams score
33%
Getafe clean sheet
58%
Málaga clean sheet
25%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
