Riyadh Air MetropolitanoSep 16 (Wed) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Osasuna9%
Draw20%
Atlético Madrid71%
Locked before start
Atlético Madrid1+ goals· 1+ Goals84%Hit
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.570%Hit
Atlético MadridHome Win· Home Win71%Hit
Showing 3 of 27 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 2.84 vs 0.60 (home Points per game 2.06 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Atlético Madrid 73.1–92.9%, Draw 3.4–20.6%, Osasuna 0.1–10.8%
Atlético Madrid leads mainly on recent attacking output (2.24 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 12%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
2
1
9
6
2
2
13
8
2
3
12
7
2
4
9
5
2
5
5
3
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals
34%
Both teams score
43%
Atlético Madrid clean sheet
55%
Osasuna clean sheet
6%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
