expected runs 3.00 vs 0.78 (home Points per game 3.06 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Barcelona 71.8–92.2%, Draw 3.4–20.6%, Racing Santander 0.1–12.3%
Barcelona leads mainly on recent attacking output (2.22 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 12%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
1
1
7
6
2
2
11
8
3
3
10
8
3
4
8
6
2
5
4
4
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
72%
Under 2.5 goals
28%
Both teams score
52%
Barcelona clean sheet
46%
Racing Santander clean sheet
5%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
