expected runs 2.64 vs 0.67 (home Points per game 1.19 / runs allowed 0.86) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Celta Vigo 68.2–89.8%, Draw 5.6–24.4%, Racing Santander 0.1–12.3%
Celta Vigo leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.97 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 15%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
2
1
9
7
2
2
13
9
3
3
11
8
3
4
7
5
2
5
4
3
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Under 2.5 goals
36%
Both teams score
46%
Celta Vigo clean sheet
51%
Racing Santander clean sheet
7%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
