Rayo Vallecano at Osasuna — Game center Final LaLiga
Sep 19 (Sat) · 12:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Rayo Vallecano 36%
Draw 24%
Osasuna 40%
Locked before start
Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 84% Hit Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 75% Hit Osasuna 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 77% Hit Showing 3 of 29 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.73 vs 1.75 (home Points per game 1.02 / runs allowed 1.86) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
vs league average
3.48 vs 3.04 goals
+2.6%p Expected goal gap
1.73 - 1.75
-0.3%p
Head to head Rayo Vallecano Osasuna
Model expected goals
1.75 1.73
Data source: ESPN API
Sergio Camello Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ante Budimir Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Álvaro García Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 3.48 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration -7pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 2/2 Hit
84% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 Team stats6 Osasuna 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.73 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -10pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 1/1 Hit
77% Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Osasuna 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Rayo Vallecano clean sheet· Clean Sheet Osasuna clean sheet· Clean Sheet Goalscorers16 Sergio Camello Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ante Budimir Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Sergio Camello 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ante Budimir 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Sergio Camello 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Ante Budimir 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Álvaro García Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Álvaro García 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Enrique Barja Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Enrique Barja 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Álvaro García 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Enrique Barja 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Andrei Ratiu Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Adrià Pedrosa Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Andrei Ratiu 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Adrià Pedrosa 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 games3 Osasuna Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.73 vs 1.75 (home Points per game 1.02 / runs allowed 1.86) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 1/2 Miss
40% Rayo Vallecano Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.75 vs 1.73 (away Points per game 1.57 / runs allowed 2.29)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 1/2 Miss
36% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 0/0 Hit
24% Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Osasuna KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 12:00 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Rayo Vallecano MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 38.0%
Draw 24.0%
Away win 38.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Osasuna 25.2–50.8%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Rayo Vallecano 25.2–50.8%
Attacking output is close (1.73 vs 1.75 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 4 5 5 3 1 1 5 10 8 5 2 2 5 8 7 4 2 3 3 5 4 2 1 4 1 2 2 1 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 67%
Under 2.5 goals 33%
Both teams score 69%
Osasuna clean sheet 17%
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet 18% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
