Real Betis at Deportivo — Game center Final LaLiga
Sep 20 (Sun) · 4:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Real Betis 50%
Draw 31%
Deportivo 19%
Locked before start
Real Betis 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 61% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 51% Hit Deportivo 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 43% Hit Showing 3 of 28 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.20 vs 0.91 (away Points per game 1.75 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
vs league average
2.11 vs 3.04 goals
+5.6%p Expected goal gap
0.91 - 1.20
+5.2%p
Head to head Real Betis Deportivo
Model expected goals
1.20 0.91
Data source: ESPN API
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Rodrigo Riquelme Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Cucho Hernández Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Real Betis 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.20 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -12pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 1/1 Hit
61% Deportivo 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Deportivo clean sheet· Clean Sheet Real Betis 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Real Betis clean sheet· Clean Sheet Deportivo 2+ goals· 2+ Goals total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 2.11 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration -12pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 2/2 Hit
51% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Real Betis Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.20 vs 0.91 (away Points per game 1.75 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 1/2 Miss
50% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 0/0 Hit
31% Deportivo Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 0.91 vs 1.20 (home Points per game 1.22 / runs allowed 1.14) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 1/2 Miss
19% Goalscorers17 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Rodrigo Riquelme Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Rodrigo Riquelme 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Cucho Hernández Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Natan Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Marc Bartra Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Cucho Hernández 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Natan 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Marc Bartra 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Luismi Cruz Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Luismi Cruz 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Zakaria Eddahchouri Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Zakaria Eddahchouri 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Diego Villares Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Diego Villares 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Deportivo KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 4:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Real Betis Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Deportivo 15.3–38.7%, Draw 19.7–44.3%, Real Betis 29–55%
Real Betis leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.29 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 32% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 13 14 9 3 1 10 14 8 3 2 5 6 4 2 3 1 2 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 35%
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Both teams score 43%
Deportivo clean sheet 30%
Real Betis clean sheet 40% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
