MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.53 vs 1.17 (away Points per game 1.50 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Villarreal 16.1–39.9%, Draw 15.3–38.7%, Real Betis 31.9–58.1%
Real Betis leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.36 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 27% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
10
8
4
1
1
7
13
9
5
2
2
4
7
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
55%
Villarreal clean sheet
22%
Real Betis clean sheet
31%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
