Riyadh Air MetropolitanoSep 20 (Sun) · 2:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Real Madrid36%
Draw27%
Atlético Madrid37%
Locked before start
Atlético Madrid1+ goals· 1+ Goals66%Hit
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.570%Hit
Real Madrid1+ goals· 1+ Goals66%Hit
Showing 3 of 32 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.71 vs 1.35 (home Points per game 2.02 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Atlético Madrid 31.9–58.1%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, Real Madrid 17–41%
Atlético Madrid leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.37 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
6
4
2
1
7
12
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
3
4
5
4
2
4
2
2
2
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
41%
Both teams score
62%
Atlético Madrid clean sheet
26%
Real Madrid clean sheet
18%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
