Real Madrid at Elche — Game center Final LaLiga
Sep 15 (Tue) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Real Madrid 83%
Draw 13%
Elche 4%
Locked before start
Real Madrid 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 95% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 84% Hit Real Madrid 2+ goals· 2+ Goals 68% Hit Showing 3 of 25 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 3.00 vs 1.16 (away Points per game 2.28 / runs allowed 1.14)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.16 - 3.00
+33.1%p vs league average
4.16 vs 3.04 goals
-6.7%p
Head to head Real Madrid Elche
Model expected goals
3.00 1.16
Data source: ESPN API
Kylian Mbappé Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jude Bellingham Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Fer Niño Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Real Madrid 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 3.00 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 3/1 Hit
95% Real Madrid 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Elche 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Elche clean sheet· Clean Sheet Elche 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Real Madrid clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 4.16 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration -2pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 5/2 Hit
84% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Real Madrid Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 3.00 vs 1.16 (away Points per game 2.28 / runs allowed 1.14)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 3/3 Hit
83% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 1/0 Miss
13% Elche Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.16 vs 3.00 (home Points per game 1.37 / runs allowed 2.43) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 2/4 Miss
4% Goalscorers20 Kylian Mbappé Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kylian Mbappé 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Jude Bellingham Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kylian Mbappé 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Jude Bellingham 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Fer Niño Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Fer Niño 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Carlos Espí Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Carlos Espí 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Jude Bellingham 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Vinícius Júnior Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Fer Niño 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Vinícius Júnior 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Carlos Espí 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Germán Valera Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Germán Valera 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Buba Sangaré Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Buba Sangaré 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Marc Aguado Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Marc Aguado 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Elche KICKOFF Sep 15 (Tue) · 7:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Real Madrid MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 11.0%
Draw 15.0%
Away win 74.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Elche 2.7–19.3%, Draw 5.6–24.4%, Real Madrid 62.4–85.6%
Real Madrid leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.84 more expected goals). The draw sits at 15%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 2 5 7 7 5 3 1 1 6 8 8 6 4 2 3 5 5 4 2 3 1 2 2 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 78%
Under 2.5 goals 22%
Both teams score 66%
Elche clean sheet 5%
Real Madrid clean sheet 31% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
