expected runs 1.60 vs 1.38 (away Points per game 1.44 / runs allowed 1.86)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Valencia 19.7–44.3%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, Real Sociedad 29–55%
Real Sociedad leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.22 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
8
6
3
1
1
6
12
9
5
2
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
3
3
2
4
1
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals
43%
Both teams score
61%
Valencia clean sheet
20%
Real Sociedad clean sheet
25%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
