Villarreal at Málaga — Game center Final LaLiga
Sep 17 (Thu) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Villarreal 39%
Draw 27%
Málaga 34%
Locked before start
Villarreal 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 66% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 68% Hit Málaga 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 64% Hit Showing 3 of 24 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.84 vs 1.15 (away Points per game 1.79 / runs allowed 1.71)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.15 - 1.84
+12.4%p vs league average
2.99 vs 3.04 goals
+0.3%p
Head to head Villarreal Málaga
Model expected goals
1.84 1.15
Data source: ESPN API
Nicolas Pépé Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Alberto Moleiro Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Chupete Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 2.99 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals· calibration -12pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 4/2 Hit
68% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 Team stats6 Villarreal 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.84 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal· calibration -9pp (past 210 beta adjusted)
goals 3/1 Hit
66% Málaga 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Villarreal 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Málaga 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Málaga clean sheet· Clean Sheet Villarreal clean sheet· Clean Sheet games3 Villarreal Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.84 vs 1.15 (away Points per game 1.79 / runs allowed 1.71)
goals 3/2 Hit
39% Málaga Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.15 vs 1.84 (home Points per game 0.90 / runs allowed 1.71) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 1/4 Miss
34% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
27% Goalscorers18 Nicolas Pépé Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Alberto Moleiro Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Nicolas Pépé 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Chupete Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Adrián Niño Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Alberto Moleiro 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Chupete 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Adrián Niño 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Pape Gueye 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Nicolas Pépé 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Georges Mikautadze 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Alberto Moleiro 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Pape Gueye Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Georges Mikautadze Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Carlos Dotor Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Pape Gueye 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Georges Mikautadze 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Carlos Dotor 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Málaga KICKOFF Sep 17 (Thu) · 7:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Villarreal Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Málaga 11.9–34.1%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, Villarreal 39.8–66.2%
Villarreal leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.69 more expected goals). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 6 9 8 5 2 1 5 11 10 6 3 1 2 3 6 6 4 2 3 1 2 2 1 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Under 2.5 goals 43%
Both teams score 58%
Málaga clean sheet 16%
Villarreal clean sheet 32% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
