expected runs 2.60 vs 1.12 (home Points per game 2.04 / runs allowed 1.14) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Real Madrid 56.8–81.2%, Draw 7.8–28.2%, Villarreal 4.1–21.9%
Real Madrid leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.48 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 18%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
2
1
1
6
8
4
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
7
8
5
2
4
4
5
3
1
5
2
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
29%
Both teams score
63%
Real Madrid clean sheet
33%
Villarreal clean sheet
7%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
