expected runs 1.46 vs 1.37 (away Points per game 1.41 / runs allowed 1.00)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Attacking output is close (1.37 vs 1.46 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 27% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
8
6
3
1
1
7
13
9
4
1
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
4
3
1
4
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
47%
Both teams score
58%
Brest clean sheet
23%
Angers clean sheet
25%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
