Stade de l'Abbé-DeschampsSep 20 (Sun) · 1:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Brest39%
Draw28%
AJ Auxerre33%
Locked before start
Brest1+ goals· 1+ Goals79%Hit
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.580%Hit
AJ Auxerre1+ goals· 1+ Goals76%Hit
Showing 3 of 25 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 2.61 vs 1.53 (away Points per game 1.68 / runs allowed 1.60)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: AJ Auxerre 9.4–30.6%, Draw 8.6–29.4%, Brest 47.1–72.9%
Brest leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.08 more expected goals). The draw sits at 19%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
4
6
5
3
1
1
2
7
8
7
5
2
2
2
5
6
6
4
2
3
2
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
77%
Under 2.5 goals
23%
Both teams score
73%
AJ Auxerre clean sheet
7%
Brest clean sheet
22%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
