expected runs 1.51 vs 0.69 (home Points per game 1.37 / runs allowed 0.80) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Lille 42.9–69.1%, Draw 16.1–39.9%, Le Havre AC 6.3–25.7%
Lille leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.83 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
12
7
2
1
16
12
4
2
13
9
3
3
6
4
2
4
2
2
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
62%
Both teams score
40%
Lille clean sheet
50%
Le Havre AC clean sheet
22%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
