Stadium Municipal de ToulouseSep 19 (Sat) · 6:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Le Havre AC28%
Draw28%
Toulouse44%
Locked before start
BothTotal 2+ goals· O 1.577%Hit
Toulouse1+ goals· 1+ Goals79%Hit
Le Havre AC1+ goals· 1+ Goals71%Hit
Showing 3 of 25 locked markets
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.66 vs 1.62 (home Points per game 1.51 / runs allowed 1.80) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Toulouse 25.2–50.8%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, Le Havre AC 23.3–48.7%
Attacking output is close (1.66 vs 1.62 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
6
5
2
1
6
11
8
4
2
2
5
8
7
4
2
3
3
5
4
2
4
1
2
2
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals
37%
Both teams score
66%
Toulouse clean sheet
20%
Le Havre AC clean sheet
19%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
