expected runs 2.78 vs 1.15 (home Points per game 1.96 / runs allowed 1.40) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Paris Saint-Germain 59–83%, Draw 7.1–26.9%, Le Mans 3.4–20.6%
Paris Saint-Germain leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.63 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 17%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
2
1
1
5
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
7
8
5
2
4
5
6
3
1
5
3
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
74%
Under 2.5 goals
26%
Both teams score
65%
Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet
32%
Le Mans clean sheet
6%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
