expected runs 0.67 vs 1.83 (away Points per game 1.72 / runs allowed 1.80)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: AS Monaco 52.4–77.6%, Draw 11.9–34.1%, Lens 3.4–20.6%
AS Monaco leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.16 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 23%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
9
5
2
1
15
11
3
2
14
9
3
3
8
6
2
4
4
3
5
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams score
42%
AS Monaco clean sheet
51%
Lens clean sheet
16%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
