expected runs 1.03 vs 0.61 (away Points per game 1.33 / runs allowed 0.80)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Nice 9.4–30.6%, Draw 23.3–48.7%, Lille 30.9–57.1%
Lille leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.43 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 36% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
21
19
10
3
1
11
13
6
2
2
3
4
2
3
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
23%
Under 2.5 goals
77%
Both teams score
30%
Nice clean sheet
36%
Lille clean sheet
55%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
