expected runs 1.23 vs 1.24 (home Points per game 1.30 / runs allowed 1.80) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Le Mans 22.4–47.6%, Draw 17.9–42.1%, Lorient 22.4–47.6%
Attacking output is close (1.23 vs 1.24 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw stays elevated at 30% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
10
6
3
1
10
14
8
3
1
2
6
8
5
2
3
2
3
2
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams score
52%
Le Mans clean sheet
29%
Lorient clean sheet
29%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
