Lyon at Lens — Game center Scheduled Ligue 1
VS
Oct 9 (Fri) · 6:45 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish
Behind the probability expected runs 1.80 vs 0.50 (away Points per game 1.55 / runs allowed 0.40)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
0.50 - 1.80
+23.4%p vs league average
2.30 vs 2.84 goals
+3.3%p
Head to head Lyon Lens
Model expected goals
1.80 0.50
Data source: ESPN API
Ernest Nuamah Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Zachary Athekame Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Felix Bacher Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Lyon 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.80 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
83% Lens clean sheet· Clean Sheet Lyon 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Lens 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Lyon clean sheet· Clean Sheet Lens 2+ goals· 2+ Goals total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 2.30 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
67% Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Lyon Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.80 vs 0.50 (away Points per game 1.55 / runs allowed 0.40)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
65% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
23% Lens Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 0.50 vs 1.80 (home Points per game 1.58 / runs allowed 1.80) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
13% Goalscorers18 Ernest Nuamah Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ernest Nuamah 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Zachary Athekame Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Zachary Athekame 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Felix Bacher Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Corentin Tolisso Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Felix Bacher 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Corentin Tolisso 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Florian Thauvin Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Florian Thauvin 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Franjo Ivanovic Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Franjo Ivanovic 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Abdallah Sima Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Abdallah Sima 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Matthieu Udol Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Matthieu Udol 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ernest Nuamah 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Zachary Athekame 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Lens KICKOFF Oct 9 (Fri) · 6:45 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Lyon Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Lens 1.4–16.6%, Draw 11.9–34.1%, Lyon 56.8–81.2%
Lyon leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.30 more expected goals). The draw sits at 23%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 11 18 16 10 4 2 1 4 10 8 5 2 2 1 2 2 1 3 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 40%
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams score 34%
Lens clean sheet 17%
Lyon clean sheet 61% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
