expected runs 1.09 vs 0.48 (away Points per game 1.40 / runs allowed 0.60)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Lorient 5.6–24.4%, Draw 22.4–47.6%, Paris FC 36.8–63.2%
Paris FC leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.60 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 35% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
22
22
12
4
1
1
9
12
6
2
2
2
3
1
3
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
21%
Under 2.5 goals
79%
Both teams score
27%
Lorient clean sheet
34%
Paris FC clean sheet
62%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
