Paris Saint-Germain at Marseille — Game center Final Ligue 1
Sep 20 (Sun) · 6:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Paris Saint-Germain 53%
Draw 28%
Marseille 19%
Locked before start
Paris Saint-Germain 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 81% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 74% Hit Marseille 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 63% Hit Showing 3 of 21 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.95 vs 1.43 (away Points per game 1.89 / runs allowed 1.40)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.43 - 1.95
+9.4%p vs league average
3.38 vs 2.84 goals
-3.2%p
Head to head Paris Saint-Germain Marseille
Model expected goals
1.95 1.43
Data source: ESPN API
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Angel Gomes Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Keyliane Abdallah Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Paris Saint-Germain 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.95 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 2/1 Hit
81% Marseille 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Paris Saint-Germain 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Marseille clean sheet· Clean Sheet Marseille 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 3.38 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 3/2 Hit
74% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Paris Saint-Germain Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 1.95 vs 1.43 (away Points per game 1.89 / runs allowed 1.40)
goals 2/2 Hit
53% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 1/0 Miss
28% Marseille Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.43 vs 1.95 (home Points per game 1.30 / runs allowed 1.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 1/3 Miss
19% Goalscorers18 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Angel Gomes Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Keyliane Abdallah Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Angel Gomes 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Keyliane Abdallah 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ferran Torres 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Ferran Torres Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ferran Torres 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Amine Gouiri Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Amine Gouiri 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Amine Gouiri 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Marquinhos 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Marquinhos Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Marquinhos 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Vitinha Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Vitinha 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Vitinha 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Marseille KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 6:45 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Paris Saint-Germain MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 27.0%
Draw 24.0%
Away win 49.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Marseille 15.3–38.7%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Paris Saint-Germain 35.8–62.2%
Paris Saint-Germain leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.52 more expected goals). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 4 6 6 4 2 1 4 10 9 6 3 1 2 3 7 7 4 2 3 2 3 3 2 1 4 1 1 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 65%
Under 2.5 goals 35%
Both teams score 66%
Marseille clean sheet 14%
Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet 24% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
