Stade Rennais at Lyon — Game center Final Ligue 1
Sep 19 (Sat) · 6:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Stade Rennais 30%
Draw 27%
Lyon 43%
Locked before start
Lyon 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 81% Hit Lyon Home Win· Home Win 43% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 80% Hit Showing 3 of 27 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.25 vs 0.43 (home Points per game 1.59 / runs allowed 0.40) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
2.25 - 0.43
+32.7%p vs league average
2.68 vs 2.84 goals
-1.0%p
Head to head Stade Rennais Lyon
Model expected goals
0.43 2.25
Data source: ESPN API
Corentin Tolisso Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Esteban Lepaul Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ernest Nuamah 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Lyon 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 2.25 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 4/1 Hit
81% Stade Rennais 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Lyon 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Stade Rennais 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Stade Rennais clean sheet· Clean Sheet Lyon clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 2.68 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 4/2 Hit
80% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Lyon Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 2.25 vs 0.43 (home Points per game 1.59 / runs allowed 0.40) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 4/1 Hit
43% Stade Rennais Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 0.43 vs 2.25 (away Points per game 1.67 / runs allowed 1.80)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 0/5 Miss
30% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 4/0 Miss
27% Goalscorers20 Corentin Tolisso Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Corentin Tolisso 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Esteban Lepaul Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Esteban Lepaul 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ernest Nuamah 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Ernest Nuamah Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ernest Nuamah 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Zachary Athekame Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Zachary Athekame 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Felix Bacher Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Felix Bacher 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Zachary Athekame 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Valentin Rongier Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Przemyslaw Frankowski Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Adrien Thomasson Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Valentin Rongier 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Przemyslaw Frankowski 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Adrien Thomasson 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Felix Bacher 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Corentin Tolisso 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Lyon KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 6:45 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Stade Rennais MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 79.0%
Draw 16.0%
Away win 5.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Lyon 68.2–89.8%, Draw 6.3–25.7%, Stade Rennais 0.1–10.8%
Lyon leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.81 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 16%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 8 2 1 15 7 1 2 17 7 2 3 13 6 1 4 7 3 5 3 1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams score 32%
Lyon clean sheet 65%
Stade Rennais clean sheet 11% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
