expected runs 1.69 vs 0.56 (home Points per game 1.19 / runs allowed 0.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: AS Monaco 51.3–76.7%, Draw 13.6–36.4%, Toulouse 2.7–19.3%
AS Monaco leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.13 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 25%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
12
5
2
1
17
11
3
2
15
8
2
3
8
5
1
4
3
2
5
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals
61%
Both teams score
36%
AS Monaco clean sheet
57%
Toulouse clean sheet
18%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
