Troyes at Angers — Game center Final Ligue 1
Sep 19 (Sat) · 6:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Troyes 26%
Draw 27%
Angers 47%
Locked before start
Angers 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 82% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 80% Hit Angers Home Win· Home Win 47% Hit Showing 3 of 27 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.53 vs 0.86 (home Points per game 1.46 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
2.53 - 0.86
+30.2%p vs league average
3.39 vs 2.84 goals
+3.3%p
Head to head Troyes Angers
Model expected goals
0.86 2.53
Data source: ESPN API
Amine Sbaï Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Branco van den Boomen Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Amine El Ouazzani Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Angers 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 2.53 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 2/1 Hit
82% Troyes 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Angers 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Troyes 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Troyes clean sheet· Clean Sheet Angers clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 3.39 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 2/2 Hit
80% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Angers Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 2.53 vs 0.86 (home Points per game 1.46 / runs allowed 1.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 2/1 Hit
47% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
27% Troyes Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 0.86 vs 2.53 (away Points per game 1.33 / runs allowed 2.20)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 0/3 Miss
26% Goalscorers20 Amine Sbaï Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Amine Sbaï 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Branco van den Boomen Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Amine El Ouazzani Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Carlens Arcus Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Branco van den Boomen 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Amine El Ouazzani 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Carlens Arcus 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Antoine Mille Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Antoine Mille 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Renaud Ripart Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Renaud Ripart 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Lucas Maronnier Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Lucas Maronnier 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Jeremy Le Douaron Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jeremy Le Douaron 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Branco van den Boomen 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Amine Sbaï 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Amine El Ouazzani 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Carlens Arcus 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Angers KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 6:45 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Troyes MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 73.0%
Draw 17.0%
Away win 10.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Angers 61.3–84.7%, Draw 7.1–26.9%, Troyes 2.1–17.9%
Angers leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.68 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 17%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 4 2 1 1 8 8 3 2 11 9 4 1 3 9 8 3 4 6 5 2 5 3 3 1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 65%
Under 2.5 goals 35%
Both teams score 54%
Angers clean sheet 42%
Troyes clean sheet 8% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
