Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 12:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Arizona Diamondbacks 62%
Colorado Rockies 38%
Locked before start
Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ 76% Hit Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74% Hit Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74% Hit Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.529 (away 83-74) vs home 57-100 0.363, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies
Pitching matchup
MS Michael Soroka Appearance confirmed
KF Kyle Freeland Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 76°F· wind 5 mph, R To L· park factor runs 112· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 76%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.249 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.232
-0.8%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 76°F 5 mph, R To L Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) last 15G AVG 0.232 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.308 (182PA) Statcast xBA 0.249 (actual 0.239, underrated 10p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.249 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.238
-1.3%p Statcast xBA
0.280 (actual 0.249)
+1.3%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 76°F 5 mph, R To L Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) last 15G AVG 0.238 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.307 (140PA) Statcast xBA 0.280 (actual 0.249, underrated 31p) Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 CC Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.249 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
76% KM Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.249 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
74% Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Arizona Diamondbacks away +1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home +1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks away -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home -1.5· Run Line games6 Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 4.5· Runs Arizona Diamondbacks Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.529 (away 83-74) vs home 57-100 0.363, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/3 Hit
62% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.363 (home 57-100) vs away 83-74 0.529, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 2/8 Miss
38% Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
