Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 12:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Arizona Diamondbacks 64%
Colorado Rockies 36%
Locked before start
Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74% Hit Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73% Hit Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71% Hit Showing 3 of 71 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.532 (away 84-74) vs home 57-101 0.361, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies
Pitching matchup
MK Merrill Kelly Appearance confirmed
MA Mason Adams Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 72°F· wind 10 mph, L To R· park factor runs 112· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.278, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.418
+19.6%p Statcast xBA
0.231 (actual 0.255)
-1.0%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 72°F 10 mph, L To R Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) last 15G AVG 0.418 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.249 (393PA) Statcast xBA 0.231 (actual 0.255, overrated 24p) Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Arizona Diamondbacks away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.3 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Colorado Rockies home +1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks away -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home -1.5· Run Line batter77 NA Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.278, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
74% Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ games6 Arizona Diamondbacks Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.532 (away 84-74) vs home 57-101 0.361, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/4 Hit
64% Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.361 (home 57-101) vs away 84-74 0.532, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 3/6 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
