Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Arizona Diamondbacks 64%
Colorado Rockies 36%
Locked before start
Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74% Hit Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73% Hit Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71% Hit Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.535 (away 85-74) vs home 57-102 0.358, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies
Pitching matchup
ER Eduardo Rodriguez Appearance confirmed
TG Tanner Gordon Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 70°F· wind 8 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 112· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74%
Locked at publish
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.278, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.418
+19.6%p Statcast xBA
0.231 (actual 0.255)
-1.0%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 70°F 8 mph, In From RF Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) last 15G AVG 0.418 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.249 (393PA) Statcast xBA 0.231 (actual 0.255, overrated 24p) Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Arizona Diamondbacks away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.2 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Colorado Rockies home +1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks away -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home -1.5· Run Line batter77 NA Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.278, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
74% Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ games6 Arizona Diamondbacks Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.535 (away 85-74) vs home 57-102 0.358, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 12/9 Hit
64% Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 4.5· Runs Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.358 (home 57-102) vs away 85-74 0.535, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 8/13 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
