Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Arizona Diamondbacks 44%
San Diego Padres 56%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.556 (home 89-71) vs away 86-74 0.538, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Arizona Diamondbacks San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
BP Brandon Pfaadt Appearance confirmed
CM Casey Mize Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 74°F· wind 10 mph, L To R· park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 8/35 adjusted 0.285, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Career vs this pitcher
8/35· weight 15%
-1.3%p Park Runs 95 / HR 95 74°F 10 mph, L To R San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.283 (487PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) BvP career 8/35 (.229, K 8·HR 1) → weight 15% Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Arizona Diamondbacks away +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks away -1.5· Run Line batter84 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 8/35 adjusted 0.285, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
64% Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ games6 San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.556 (home 89-71) vs away 86-74 0.538, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 4/12 Miss
56% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Arizona Diamondbacks Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.538 (away 86-74) vs home 89-71 0.556, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 11/5 Hit
44% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
