Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 12:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Arizona Diamondbacks 44%
San Diego Padres 56%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.559 (home 90-71) vs away 86-75 0.534, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Arizona Diamondbacks San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
TC Taylor Clarke Appearance confirmed
WB Walker Buehler Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 76°F· wind 9 mph, L To R· park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.295 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.248 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.344
+5.9%p Statcast xBA
0.248 (actual 0.295)
-1.9%p Park Runs 95 / HR 95 76°F 9 mph, L To R San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) last 15G AVG 0.344 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.298 (322PA) Statcast xBA 0.248 (actual 0.295, overrated 47p) Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Arizona Diamondbacks away +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks away -1.5· Run Line batter84 TF Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.295 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.248 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
67% Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ games6 San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.559 (home 90-71) vs away 86-75 0.534, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 10/8 Hit
56% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 3.5· Runs Arizona Diamondbacks Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.534 (away 86-75) vs home 90-71 0.559, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/11 Miss
44% strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
