Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Arizona Diamondbacks 43%
San Diego Padres 57%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.562 (home 91-71) vs away 86-76 0.531, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Arizona Diamondbacks San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
MS Michael Soroka Appearance confirmed
RV Randy Vásquez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 78°F· wind 7 mph, L To R· park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Park Runs 95 / HR 95 78°F 7 mph, L To R San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.283 (487PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Arizona Diamondbacks away +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks away -1.5· Run Line batter84 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
62% Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ games6 San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.562 (home 91-71) vs away 86-76 0.531, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 9/5 Hit
57% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Arizona Diamondbacks Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.531 (away 86-76) vs home 91-71 0.562, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/10 Miss
43% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
