Athletics at Cleveland Guardians — Game center Final MLB
Sep 18 (Fri) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Athletics 32%
Cleveland Guardians 68%
Locked before start
Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75% Hit Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74% Miss Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.513 (home 79-75) vs away 61-93 0.396, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Athletics Cleveland Guardians
Pitching matchup
MB Mason Barnett Appearance confirmed
DE Daniel Espino Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 70°F· wind 10 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 98· HR 98
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.253 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.246 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.308
+6.6%p Park Runs 98 / HR 98 70°F 10 mph, In From RF Cleveland Guardians 3 OUT (Colin Holderman …) Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) last 15G AVG 0.308 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.272 (353PA) Statcast xBA 0.246 (actual 0.253, overrated 7p) Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Cleveland Guardians home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
78% Athletics away +1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians home -1.5· Run Line Athletics away -1.5· Run Line batter77 BR Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.253 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.246 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
75% Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ games6 Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs Cleveland Guardians Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.513 (home 79-75) vs away 61-93 0.396, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 5/4 Hit
68% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Athletics team runs Over 3.5· Runs Athletics Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.396 (away 61-93) vs home 79-75 0.513, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/6 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
